I felt pressure to write this post because I saw a lot of wrong (or emotional) thought in both side. We have to be logical not emotional in that kind of crisis.
I personally like “Putin’s way” and I follow Putin and Putin’s politics. I have followed Putin fan groups in facebook. That means, I’m familiar Putin and Russian side. I want to explain Turkish side because Russia is better than Turkey in propaganda and media relation. My English not very well but I believe I can tell the story (in Turkish view).
First of all I want to started what happened in Turkey-Syria border?
After Syrian civil war, Turkish government shift engagement (angajman in Turkish). What is this engagement? As you know, all country has to right the defend/protect its border. Engagement is a kind of “military respond to threat” and it gives permission to shoot any threat after warning.
Russian Airplane Violated Turkish Border
Turkish government claim Russian plane for violation of Turkish border. This is published by department of Chief of Staff :
Turkish side, announced and warned 10 times about “approaching Turkish air space” and requested to Russian planes for change direction to south . Russian airplane didn’t. When Russian plane cross the border, Turkish F16 fired the missile.
This is the records:
Russian government claim that, plane was not crossed Turkish territory.
Seconds of Violation
Published radar result shows route, I checked on Google Earth and trespassing line is about 2,4 kilometers. Turkish government say “Russian plane stay 17 seconds” but;
Time = distance / speed
Su 24 has max. 1550km/s. That means 430.5 meter per second.
Distance was 2,4 kilometers which is equal to 2400 meters. Then;
Time = 2400 / 403,5 = 5.5 seconds.
Let say, it is not in max speed, it was just 8-10 seconds. As you can see in the map, there is a shape. That means, Russian aircraft could accidentally cross the border (if they did not hear the warnings)… According to engagement, Turkish plane should shoot the threat. They did it.
Russian media published radar routes:
There is no any statement about “violation” from US, NATO and EU sides.
Jennifer Griffin tweet that :
US mil source; US pilots heard Turks warn Russian pilots on GUARD radio frequency. Multiple warnings, according to US pilots.
Every country has to right of protect of border. There is no problems about that and Turkish government warned Russian government before about trespassing. However Russian planes crossed Turkish border again. You know rest of the story.
A lot of people and I believe also Putin can understand the engagement rules. So, what was the biggest problem?
Behaviours of Turkish Government
As I understand from Putin’s statements, he criticised Turkey about ” Turkish side not informed Russia”. He said, they act like Turkish plane was shooted by Russia, they arranged NATO meeting quickly without informed Russia.
I agree with that. Turkish authorities should inform Russian government and both countries should open dialog channels.
Russia Bombed Turkmens Not ISIS
Turkmens are Turk and Turkish government senstive about Turkmens because we have bonds with them.
When we look the Syrian map, we can see where is the location of ISIS:
ISIS located on grey part.
Russian plane violated border and shooted in here;
This is the location of Turkmens:
Russia try to create perception about “when Russian planes bomb ISIS, Turkey shooted the planes” but there is no any ISIS groups in that part.
Turkey and Russia have strong economic relations. I don’t believe this relations will be end. Of course, first days of crisis both side will take some sanctions. Because “trust” took damage in both side.
Turkey is important country in the Middle East. Russia’s movement is important also. That means both Russian and Turkish government should keep dialog.
I’m waiting some actions from Turkish government about save pilots. It would be gesture and good begining of “reconstruction” of Turkish – Russian relation.
We need eachother. Hostility and conflict between Turkish and Russian government create problems. It does not provide benefits to both sides. However, good relations will provide benefits for Russian and Turkish government and olsa for Syria, Middle East and “peace”…
Peace at home, peace in the world…